How we score
Scoring
In short: points come mainly from how good your plan was and how your own version of the match ended. Beating the real result is a bonus on top: up to 15 pts, and at most 6 when the club actually won.
The exact formula is at the bottom, but to start you only need one question: would your lineup and your tactics realistically have pulled out a better result?
You are not guessing the real score
You do not need to know how the match will end. Your job is to show that with your lineup, your setup and your changes the club would have played better than it actually did.
The club lost 0-2 and your version ends 2-1? A lot of points. Your version ends 8-0? The win itself pays the same, but a distribution that scattered costs you the whole 10 pts for focus - that is the tail of the distribution, not a plan.
100 points, three baskets
Everything is counted automatically after the final whistle. A settled plan always pays at least 5 pts.
Basket 1
50 ptsHow your match ended
The biggest chunk. It follows what came out of your version of the match, and how that looks next to what the club actually did.
Your match result
25 ptsWin 25, draw 8, loss 0. The real pitch score can never take this away.
You win 1-0 while the club really won 3-0: still the full 25. A smaller margin is not a penalty.
Beating the real result
15 ptsTwo levels better than reality (they lost, you won) = 15. One level = 9. Same outcome but a better goal difference = 3 per extra goal, up to 6. Worse than reality = 0, never a minus.
The club lost 0-2, your version wins 2-1: the full 15. This is the moment Dobitka is built for.
Your club in real life
10 ptsThe club won for real: 10. Drew: 4. Lost: 0.
Nothing to play for here - it is a thank-you for the days your club delivers. You are a fan first.
Basket 2
30 ptsHow good your plan was
Here it does not matter what came out - only whether your setup genuinely raised the team's chances. This is the part you control most directly, and the part that separates the table.
Plan quality
20 ptsWe compare your plan's win chance with the default plan we pre-fill for you. Level with it: 10 pts. Every percentage point of edge adds 0.8 pts.
Your XI and style push the win chance from 41% to 46%: that edge alone is worth 14 of the 20 points.
Initiative
10 ptsThe one part you cannot get by doing nothing. It unlocks only if you actually deviate: at least 2 changes to the suggested XI, or a style slider moved by 15+. Then it pays for holding your edge: 10 pts at +5pp or better, 7 at +2pp, 4 around neutral.
You leave the suggested lineup untouched: 0 here, whatever else happens in the match.
Basket 3
20 ptsWhat you did in-game, and whether it holds up
Your in-match decisions, and a check that the whole thing still looks like football.
Changes that worked
10 ptsClicking a substitution pays nothing. It has to come on AND lift the team's chances: 5 pts for a clear improvement, 2 for a small one, 0 when the measured effect was zero or negative - a sub that sees out the game counts in plan quality, not here.
Your "when we are 0-1 down, bring on the striker" fires in the 55th minute and the team starts creating: full marks for that change.
Distribution focus
10 ptsHow tightly your plan holds the match: the share of the 5,000 versions that ended on your scoreline - 16.1%+ = 10, 14.9%+ = 8, 13.7%+ = 6, 12.4%+ = 4, 11.2%+ = 2, more scattered = 0.
Your plan produces 2-1 in 17% of versions - the match is under control. Another plan lands the same 2-1 in 9%: same scoreline, far less grip.
A full worked example
El Clásico, your club is Real Madrid. In real life Real lost 0-2. You picked your own XI, went with an aggressive press and set a change for „when we go 0-1 down”. Your version: Real wins 2-1. Your change came on in the 55th minute and the team started creating.
- Your match result: a win+25
- Beating the real result: they lost, you won+15
- Your club in real life: they lost+0
- Plan quality: win chance 4 percentage points above the default plan+13
- Initiative: you changed the XI and held the edge+7
- Distribution focus: 2-1 came up in 14% of versions+6
- Changes that worked: your sub came on and helped+5
Total71 / 90
How much is actually on the table
Two parts pull against each other: you score for your club winning in real life, and you score for beating what the club did. Both cannot be at maximum at once, so the honest denominator depends on the real result.
| The club in real life | Bonus limit | Your ceiling |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 91 |
| Drew | 9 | 88 |
| Lost | 15 | 90 |
The ceilings sit close together on purpose: no matter how your club's weekend went, you are playing for roughly the same pool. And because the tables are per club, every manager of your club had exactly the same ceiling in that match.
What does NOT affect your points
- Guessing the real score - neither the exact score nor the goal difference. This is not a prediction game.
- The number of goals in your win - 1-0 and 4-0 are both wins and pay the same base. The difference shows up in probability, where odd scorelines lose points.
- Your formation as such - 4-3-3 or 3-5-2 changes how your match plays out, but there is no separate bonus for matching the real coach.
- Your commentator persona - that is the writing style only, zero effect on points.
- How many changes you plan - you score for changes that actually came on and helped, not for planning them.
- How often you edit the lineup - you can change it until kick-off; the last version counts.
The exact formula, component by component
Every threshold and coefficient the settlement actually uses. Nothing above is a simplification of a different rule - it is the same maths, in words.
season_v4 scoring
How your points are calculated
Your displayed scoreline is the most common exact score across your plan's 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations. Minutes, scorers and the timeline come from a representative iteration that ended with that score. The same plan always returns the same result.
Keeping the suggested lineup untouched caps you at 90 points - the Initiative component is earned only by playing it your way.
The seven component limits add up to 100 points. The achievable limit after the real match is contextual.
Your match result
/ 25Win 25 / draw 8 / loss 0, based on the most common exact score for your plan.
Actual club result
/ 10Win 10 / draw 4 / loss 0.
Coach bonus
/ 1515 for improving on the real result by two outcome levels, 9 for one level. Same outcome: 3 per extra goal of goal difference, capped at 6. Worse outcome earns 0.
Distribution focus
/ 10How tightly your plan concentrates the 5,000 replays around one scoreline - the share of the modal score: at least 16.1% = 10, at least 14.9% = 8, at least 13.7% = 6, at least 12.4% = 4, at least 11.2% = 2, below 11.2% = 0. No distribution from the model = 4, the middle of the scale.
Plan quality
/ 20clamp(0, 20, round(10 + 0.8 × Δpp)), where Δpp is your plan's win-probability edge over the reference plan. Missing measurement = 10.
Initiative
/ 10Only for deviating from the suggested template (at least 2 XI changes or a style slider moved by 15+). Edge kept at +5pp or more = 10, +2pp = 7, around neutral = 4, clearly negative = 0. Untouched template = 0.
Changes with measured impact
/ 10Each applied change: 5 when ΔxG ≥ 0.02, 2 when 0 < ΔxG < 0.02, 0 without measurement or with ΔxG ≤ 0. Capped at 10.
After settlement, the match score cannot fall below 5 points.
Achievable limit after the real result
The actual club result and the coach bonus constrain each other, so the correct denominator depends on the real result.
| Actual result | Coach bonus limit | Match limit |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 6 | 91 |
| Draw | 9 | 88 |
| Loss | 15 | 90 |